For a long time, it was considered the “Black Gold“, given its importance to humanity. This value was derived from its scarcity and preponderance in the sense in which it followed economic development, nothing less than a society dependent on hydrocarbons. In fact, oil has been the cause of several wars over the past decades, just as the previous sources of energy had already been, but never before has mankind been so dependent on a good that has transformed society, for good and bad, as few others did, because oil was the main driver of personal, economic and other freedoms. However, like all other essential raw materials throughout history, “black gold” appears to be experiencing its twilight, not that it will disappear, but it will certainly no longer have the degree of indispensability that it benefited in the last century.
It was the end of 2014, after the sharp drop in its value, which brought the price from $100 to $40 per barrel, and I remember the statements by then, Saudi Arabian oil minister to CNBC, when he declared that the $100 a barrel would never be reached again. That person in the meantime was dismissed, but really his “prophecy” has remained correct. A few days ago, a Portuguese official of a large oil company, anticipated in an interview, that the only thing that was certain was the increase in the price of oil, it was just not known when. But, despite the fact that there may be some normal fluctuations, the fundamentals go against this presumption, not least because he himself stated a few minutes later that the company is reinventing itself, namely in the transformation to an energy trading company instead of an oil and gas producer.
In fact, this change is no longer new, Saudi Arabia itself, the world’s largest producer, has for some years been seriously investing in the production of energy through solar energy, even wanting to become a major world player in the sector. By this I mean that although oil will not disappear from our lives, the decline in demand is inevitable, to which is added an increasingly abundant supply due to shale oil, which combined with the maturation of other technologies in the mobility sector, be it electricity or hydrogen, it will send oil to a level of much lower importance, which will hardly be reflected in the price in the medium to long term.
