Asia equities track their global peers higher after a retreat in oil prices eased global growth concerns and with some optimism ahead of Russia-Ukraine talks later today. The energy sector could underperform today as Oil prices saw the largest dollar-term intraday plunge on record. Commodities complex had seen a sizable pullback as Russia stated that they don’t want to topple the Ukrainian government and prefers to achieve goals via talks before Zelensky later added he is prepared for certain concessions to end the war.
Oil prices have seen an additional hit, 12-13%, with the UAE saying it favours production increases and will be encouraging OPEC to consider higher production at higher levels. On the macro front, traders will be watching the ECB statement and press conference. President Lagarde is scheduled to start speaking as the US releases their February CPI data, with analysts expecting the figure to reach 8%. The data will be key in determining Fed expectations for next week and beyond as the market recently pushed back the 50 bps pricing after the Russia/Ukraine war. The market narrative points that with the conflict in Ukraine, the Fed is less likely to be as aggressive in raising rates. But, if any de-escalation talks send a positive breakthrough in the short-term, markets could quickly start to price in a faster tightening scenario due to recent commodities price and trade after Russia sanctions.
