Once again, a tweet of Donald Trump was enough to generate a huge speculative move on the markets, with oil the asset in question this time. Speculation about the possibility of a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia, also involving the US, saw the oil price jumped rapidly from $21.50 to $27, before slowing down to $25. Investors are expecting something to happen, even if frankly speaking the deal doesn’t seem immediately possible and at this stage seems more like speculation than something likely to happen quickly. And this is the key point as the oil market needs something to happen as soon as possible to rebalance the shock that is happening on markets with two black swan events at the same time: coronavirus and a missing OPEC deal.
In other words, unless something real (and not only rumours) is agreed, the risk is that the barrel will slow down again in the next few days after this quick and impressive rally.
